Accuracy of PREDICT+ to Determine OS in Early Breast Cancer

Elisa Agostinetto, MD, discusses the accuracy of PREDICT+, an online tool used to predict mortality in patients with early breast cancer patients and to aid in clinical decision making, to determine the survival of patients enrolled in the phase 3 ALTTO trial of adjuvant lapatinib with or without trastuzumab versus trastuzumab alone in patients with HER2+ early breast cancer. 

Elisa Agostinetto, MD of the Istituto Clinico Humanitas, Rozzano, Milan, Italy, discusses the accuracy of PREDICT+, an online tool used to predict mortality in patients with early breast cancer patients and to aid in clinical decision making, to determine the survival of patients enrolled in the phase 3 ALTTO trial (NCT00490139) of adjuvant lapatinib (Tykerb) with or without trastuzumab (Herceptin) versus trastuzumab alone in patients with HER2+ early breast cancer. 

According to Agostinetto, PREDICT+ underestimated the survival of patients in the ALTTO trial. The 5-year overall survival (OS) prediction was 6.7 percentage points lower than what the actual 5-year OS was. These findings were consistent across all subgroups. 

The greatest discrepancies were seen in patients with hormone receptor negative disease, node positive disease, and patients with larger tumor sizes. Discriminatory accuracy was also found to be low in the overall population. This finding was consistent across all subgroups.